Friday, January 7, 2011

Weekend Pick Off


The pick in bold...


Saints (minus 10) @ Seahawks
This game is probably the only safe pick against the spread all weekend.  Seattle is arguably the worst division winner in the history of the modern NFL, a very shaky 7-9 on the season.  Reports broke late Thursday that Matt Hasselbeck will be healthy and ready to go for the Seahawks.  I don't understand why this is news unless you are actually betting an over/under on interceptions thrown by Seattle quarterbacks.  That line was 3.5 with Charlie Whitehurst, now down to an even 3 with Hasselbeck.  When the best argument you can make in Seattle's favor is that the stadium gets loud, it is officially a red flag.  If I am New Orleans and I win the toss, I receive, score right away and make a bona fide crappy offense like Seattle chase the game.  For what it's worth, I wouldn't have hesitated on the Saints if the line were double as much.  Saints are gonna roll. 

Jets (plus 2.5) @ Colts
Picking Peyton Manning in a playoff scenario is never a "mortal lock" scenario, and it is even less so considering his wide outs were practice squad guys less than six weeks ago.  That said, Indianapolis won this same matchup at home a year ago.  Also, I can't shake the ass whipping the Jets took on Monday Night Football against the Patriots.  Here's why: some teams just don't excel under the bright lights.  Baltimore is that team.  Atlanta very well may be that team, we will know in a week.  The Jets appear to be that team.  No good team goes into their biggest game of the year, nationally televised, against a division opponent that you know well and gets beat 45-3.  It just doesn't happen.  I don't think this will be a rout but I just feel like a laying a field goal isn't so bad.  The Jets limped into the playoffs, finishing on a 2-3 run to close out the season.  The Colts have been playing playoff games since week 14 and have won 4 in a row coming in.  Colts, not by a lot but by enough.

Ravens (minus 3) @ Chiefs
I am not comfortable picking against home team dogs unless that home team is Seattle.  Here is what I know about this game.  It is going to be less than 30 degrees at kickoff and there is snow in the forecast.  Perfect conditions for what the Chiefs do well, dink and dunk passing attack and a steady dose of Jamaal Charles.  Joe Flacco, to me, is a game manager and doesn't have the weapons in shitty weather conditions to inflict maximum damage.  I could be wrong and Ray Rice could have 175 yards and kill my pick, but I just don't see it.  I also hate to play up the crowd factor but the Chiefs haven't played a home playoff game since the Nixon Administration it seems like and the crowd will be seriously wound up for this one.  For me, this is the toughest game to call in the first round.  At the end of the day, I think this is a sucker's bet and the underdog Chiefs aren't really an underdog.  The Chiefs won't beat themselves with turnovers and are gonna be there at the end of this game.  If that is the case, I like their chances.  Chiefs, straight up for the win. 

Packers (plus 2.5) @ Eagles
This is a tough call for a number of reasons.  First, the Packers are a good team that has had to win important games against tough teams just to be in this position.  Second, anyone who saw the Eagles lose to Minnesota a couple weeks back has serious concerns about the Eagles' championship credentials.  I think these teams are evenly matched.  At the end of the day I can't pick against Michael Vick.  He has proven throughout his career that the bright lights moments (the ones the Jets appear terrified of) are his best moments.  Think about when he destroyed the Packers at Lambeau in the freezing cold.  Think about that national championship game against Florida State (Virginia Tech lost that game but only because everyone other than Vick on that team stunk).  My guess is that Vick, at least for one week, turns in the all-world performance we all know he is capable of.  I don't think it will work throughout the playoffs because better teams will contain him and hit him hard if he goes mobile, but for one week, it will be the Michael Vick Show.  My dog officially hates this pick.  Eagles have the best player in the game, win by a touchdown. 

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