Thursday, January 13, 2011

Carmelo to... the Clippers?

Bill Simmons wrote an article on ESPN about this (here) and while it is that I am sure you are thinking I must be sniffing glue, the guy makes a whole lot of sense.  Let's break it down a bit and you tell me what you think:

1.  Carmelo wants to play for the Knicks...  The Knicks have nothing to offer Denver in terms of fair market value for a trade.  Nothing remotely close.  So that isn't gonna happen in season.  OK so he waits until the off season and signs a free agent deal with the Knicks.  Not so fast.  There's a lock out coming and the potential for a dramatic shift in the salary cap exists.  Max deals could be 4 or 5 years starting in 2011.  The max money could be dramatically less.  Basically, while the Knicks could happen in the off season, the potential for a lockout and the changing NBA economy could cost Carmelo a fortune ($20M) if he doesn't get something done before the close of the season.

2.  The Nets Russian owner has ridiculous money...  It doesn't change the fact that max money is max money, here there or everywhere.  At the end of the day you might end up playing in a very nice arena very close to New York City but that's really it.  You will always be second fiddle in New York to the Knicks.  Brooklyn would likely still qualify as a bigger market than Denver but only slightly.  Do you really want to be 6th page of the Sports Section news in New York?  I wouldn't.

3.  Have you looked at the Nets roster...  The best players right now on the Nets roster are Brook Lopez, Devin Harris and Derrick Favors.  Take two of those off the board, as they will be on the move to Denver in order to get Carmelo Anthony.  The team is currently 10-28.  Shocking bad.  How much of a difference is Carmelo going to make when surrounded by garbage.  Kobe couldn't make it work past getting to the Playoffs.  Michael Jordan got to the East finals but no further.  LeBron got to an NBA finals but as of right now he's won as many NBA Finals games as I have, so you can guess how that went.  And I would speculate that each of those guys had a better (*albeit still bad) supporting cast than Carmelo would in Denver.  Basically, in basketball terms, as Simmons said, it's Denver East. 

4.  There is a case for the Clippers...  And his name is Blake Griffin.  This guy is an absolute fucking monster.  He is a 22-13 guy in his de facto rookie year.  He may be the best highlight reel power forward since right before Shawn Kemp got obese.  The Clippers can offer a good package to the Nuggets that includes Minnesota's unprotected #1 in next spring's draft, which very well could be the #1 overall.  The Clippers have a much better roster post-trade than the Nets, by a mile.  Starting 5 post trade would be Eric Gordon, Baron Davis, Carmelo Anthony, Blake Griffin and Jarron Collins.  The Clips can sign a deal on 2010 terms right now, so a full $65M.  And you would still be in Los Angeles, the nation's second largest media market. 

I doubt this will happen because Donald Sterling will always find a way to cheap out.  But I am saying that there is a case to be made for this and the Clips and Nuggets ought to get interested in making this happen. 

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